The WTI crude oil price will be in the spotlight this week as the US war against Iran escalates. It ended the week at $112.08, up by over 104% from its lowest level this year. Futures on Hyperliquid quoted the price at $112.15, with its open interest rising to $575 million.
WTI crude oil in focus as Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran nears
Crude oil prices continued rising last week after Trump’s speech to calm down the market backfired. In a statement, the president said that the war would wrap up soon, while maintaining that the US would hit Iran hard, taking it to the “stone age.”
Trump maintained his threats against Iran during the weekend, noting that his 10-day deadline was nearing. This deadline will happen on Monday evening, which will be early morning in Iran.
He has pledged to bomb Iran’s critical infrastructure, including bridges, power infrastructure, and desalination plants. A Reuters report said that Israel was prepared to do the bombing and was just waiting for a go-ahead from Washington.
Iran, on the other hand, has pledged to cause havoc in the Middle East by blowing up critical infrastructure in key countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Israel. It may also hit energy sources in the region, a move that will lead to higher crude oil prices.
Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only a handful of ships to cooperating countries like India and Pakistan. It is charging a fee, which it insists must be paid in Chinese yuan.
At the same time, there is a likelihood that Iran and its partners will block oil shipping in the Red Sea, which accounts for about 12% of global supply.
Therefore, all these factors mean that oil prices may keep rising in the foreseeable future, with some analysts predicting that the WTI benchmark will keep soaring. A Polymarket poll places the odds that it will jump to $120 in April at 76% and $150 at 21%.
On the other hand, a Kalshi poll estimates that WTI will surge to $150 by the end of the year. Such a jump would push it to a record high and push gasoline and diesel prices higher.
Kalshi crude oil price poll | Source: Kalshi
AAA data shows that the average gasoline price has jumped to over $4, while diesel is nearing the $6 mark. Another report by IATA shows that the average jet fuel price has jumped to $195 a barrel, up by over 103% YoY.
WTI crude oil price chart analysis
Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
The three-day chart shows that the WTI crude oil price has been in a strong upward trend in the past few months, soaring from the double-bottom low of $55 to the current $112.
This rebound happened after prices formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. It has already moved above the double-bottom’s neckline at $77.62.
WTI has soared above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have continued rising.
Therefore, the most likely WTI forecast is bullish, with the initial target being the year-to-date high of $119.54. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the 2022 high of $129.13.
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