Moscow-based agricultural consultancy SovEcon has significantly increased its projection for Russian wheat exports in the 2025-26 season, raising the forecast by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to a commanding 43.8 MMT.
The upward revision comes on the heels of better-than-anticipated domestic crop estimates and a notable acceleration in the pace of Russian export activity.
The Russian wheat market outlook is strengthening due to an upward revision in production forecasts and a resurgence in global importer demand.
SovEcon increased its Russian wheat production estimate to 87.8 MMT, up 0.6 MMT, solidifying Russia’s dominant position and increasing exportable surplus.
Import demand and prices
Simultaneously, key importers are boosting demand, likely driven by stock replenishment, competitive pricing of Russian wheat, and prioritising food security amidst global uncertainty.
This convergence of higher supply and robust demand suggests Russia is well-positioned to meet global requirements, potentially stabilising international prices unless major supply shocks occur elsewhere.
“Importers who had been waiting for lower prices are returning to the market,” SovEcon said.
Physical prices for wheat have demonstrated considerable resilience, holding firm in key international markets in recent weeks.
Specifically, the Free On Board (FOB) price for Black Sea wheat, a critical benchmark due to the region’s immense export volume, has remained steady, hovering close to the $230 per metric ton (MT) mark.
This stability is mirrored in the European Union (EU) wheat markets, where prices have also been consistent and near the same $230/MT level.
This sustained firmness in physical prices suggests robust underlying demand, balanced supply expectations, and a general lack of downward pressure from speculative trading or logistical bottlenecks.
Export pace improving
Russia maintained a robust pace for its grain shipments in October, with wheat exports specifically reaching an estimated 5.4 MMT.
This figure notably surpassed the typical export volume for the month, which averages around 4.5 MMT.
The strong performance brings October’s export total very close to the record high of 5.6 MMT that was shipped during the same period in the previous year.
SovEcon has released its initial forecast for agricultural shipments in November, projecting a total volume between 4.2 and 4.7 MMT.
Should shipments reach the upper end of this estimate, or even within this range, it would establish a significant new monthly record for the period.
The current standing record was set in 2022, with a high of 4.3 MMT.
This substantial projected volume highlights robust export activity and could indicate strong international demand or a successful harvest season driving supply.
Exports face potential headwinds from two factors: a strengthened ruble and greater competition, particularly from the Southern Hemisphere, according to SovEcon.
The latter is evidenced by the sharp drop in Argentine prices as they anticipate a potentially record harvest.
“After a very weak start, Russia’s export pace is improving as importer demand firmed and domestic supply increased,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said.
But in the coming months, shipments will likely slow again due to seasonal weather challenges and growing competition from Argentina and Australia, both harvesting bumper crops.
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